Arizona expanded Medicaid, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 applies to its expansion adults. About 476,311 of them (11.1% of an expansion pool of 509,183) will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, or service, or an exemption, to keep coverage.
This model's bottom-up estimate is that 155,925 people in Arizona lose coverage by 2034: 141,635 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 14,289 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.
Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. Arizona scores 75 of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a low band; its eligibility system is HEAplus / Cúram.
Key figures
| Measure | Arizona |
|---|---|
| Expansion state | Yes |
| Subject to the requirement via waiver | No |
| Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64) | 509,183 |
| Adults subject, strict definition | 476,311 |
| Adults subject, permissive definition | 466,785 |
| Share of expansion pool subject | 11.1% |
| Projected coverage loss by 2034 | 155,925 |
| Hardship exception status | Undecided |
| Early implementer | No |
| Ex parte capability score (0 to 100) | 75 (low) |
Who is subject in Arizona
Of the 476,311 subject adults, 33% already work 80 or more hours a month and 59% are not working. 31% have a child under 14 at home. Among those not working, 44% report a disability and 18% are caregivers.
| Characteristic | Share of subject adults |
|---|---|
| Age 19-24 | 16% |
| Age 25-34 | 21% |
| Age 35-44 | 17% |
| Age 45-54 | 18% |
| Age 55-64 | 28% |
| Not working | 59% |
| 1 to 19 hours a month | 1% |
| 20 to 79 hours a month | 6% |
| 80 or more hours a month (meets the bar) | 33% |
| Not working: Disabled | 44% |
| Not working: Caregiver | 18% |
| Not working: Postpartum | 0% |
| Not working: Student | 4% |
| Not working: Other | 34% |
Why eligible people lose coverage
Of the 155,925 projected to lose coverage in Arizona, 141,635 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 55,476 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 86,160 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.
| Group | Projected to lose coverage |
|---|---|
| Variable shifts / on-call work | 14,318 |
| Self-employed (other) | 12,769 |
| Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure) | 9,961 |
| Full-time students not auto-verified | 5,247 |
| Volunteering / job training | 4,216 |
| Cash-paid construction & trades | 4,090 |
| Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service | 3,155 |
| Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart) | 1,719 |
| American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption) | 30,668 |
| Medically frail without auto-match | 21,249 |
| Caregivers of a disabled adult | 19,038 |
| Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤13 | 3,865 |
| SUD treatment not flagged in claims data | 3,773 |
| Recent incarceration (data-match gap) | 3,321 |
| Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match | 2,833 |
| Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF) | 1,230 |
| Pregnancy / postpartum data lag | 183 |
Can the state renew people automatically?
The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (88% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. Arizona's composite score is 75 (low band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Composite | 75 |
| Observed ex parte | 88 |
| Core capability | 54 |
| Data sources | 68 |
| Historical churn | 50 |
How subjects overlap across exemption categories
| Combination | Adults | Share |
|---|---|---|
| None of the four | 209,395 | 44.0% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income | 97,274 | 20.4% |
| Medically frail | 67,320 | 14.1% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 37,808 | 7.9% |
| Full-time student | 22,581 | 4.7% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Full-time student | 13,374 | 2.8% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 13,358 | 2.8% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Medically frail | 7,342 | 1.5% |
Counties in Arizona
Subject adults concentrate: Maricopa County (282,390), Pima County (72,050), and Pinal County (30,320) account for 81% of the state's subject population.
| County | Adults subject | Subject rate | Projected loss | Poverty rate | Working-age population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 282,390 | 10.3% | 92,443 | 12.0% | 2,733,286 |
| Pima County | 72,050 | 11.9% | 23,586 | 15.0% | 607,540 |
| Pinal County | 30,320 | 11.6% | 9,926 | 11.0% | 262,130 |
| Yavapai County | 19,272 | 15.9% | 6,309 | 12.0% | 121,382 |
| Mohave County | 16,770 | 15.1% | 5,490 | 16.0% | 111,224 |
| Yuma County | 13,715 | 12.1% | 4,490 | 18.0% | 113,021 |
| Coconino County | 10,648 | 11.8% | 3,486 | 17.0% | 90,268 |
| Cochise County | 8,170 | 12.2% | 2,674 | 15.0% | 66,985 |
| Navajo County | 7,206 | 12.4% | 2,359 | 25.0% | 57,951 |
| Gila County | 4,073 | 15.3% | 1,333 | 19.0% | 26,696 |
| Apache County | 3,990 | 11.0% | 1,306 | 33.0% | 36,420 |
| Santa Cruz County | 3,302 | 12.6% | 1,081 | 20.0% | 26,218 |
| Graham County | 2,399 | 10.5% | 785 | 18.0% | 22,842 |
| La Paz County | 1,390 | 20.1% | 455 | 21.0% | 6,925 |
| Greenlee County | 615 | 11.0% | 201 | 13.0% | 5,598 |
State brief and methodology
Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.