Gizmo Warehouseby Joe Eichenbaum | 17A

Medicaid work requirements · Arkansas

Medicaid work requirements in Arkansas: who is subject and who loses coverage (2027)

Data snapshot 2026-06-03 · part of These 5 Million People Are About to Lose Their Medicaid — But They Don't Have To

Arkansas expanded Medicaid, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 applies to its expansion adults. About 218,861 of them (12.4% of an expansion pool of 233,965) will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, or service, or an exemption, to keep coverage.

This model's bottom-up estimate is that 99,469 people in Arkansas lose coverage by 2034: 92,903 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 6,566 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.

Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. Arkansas scores 69 of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a mid band; its eligibility system is ARIES (Northrop Grumman, legacy).

Key figures

Model v2-2026-06-03. "Strict" counts adults whose ACS record shows them subject with no observable exemption; "permissive" allows the broader exemption reading.
MeasureArkansas
Expansion stateYes
Subject to the requirement via waiverNo
Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64)233,965
Adults subject, strict definition218,861
Adults subject, permissive definition214,483
Share of expansion pool subject12.4%
Projected coverage loss by 203499,469
Hardship exception statusAdopting
Early implementer2026-07-01 soft, 2027-01 full
Ex parte capability score (0 to 100)69 (mid)

Who is subject in Arkansas

Of the 218,860 subject adults, 35% already work 80 or more hours a month and 60% are not working. 40% have a child under 14 at home. Among those not working, 56% report a disability and 16% are caregivers.

ACS PUMS 5-year 2020 to 2024, subject adults only.
CharacteristicShare of subject adults
Age 19-2413%
Age 25-3423%
Age 35-4421%
Age 45-5418%
Age 55-6425%
Not working60%
1 to 19 hours a month1%
20 to 79 hours a month5%
80 or more hours a month (meets the bar)35%
Not working: Disabled56%
Not working: Caregiver16%
Not working: Postpartum0%
Not working: Student1%
Not working: Other27%

Why eligible people lose coverage

Of the 99,469 projected to lose coverage in Arkansas, 92,903 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 31,540 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 61,362 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.

Bottom-up model v8.0-2026-05-30; documentation-failure buckets compound over the 14 six-month renewal cycles through 2034.
GroupProjected to lose coverage
Variable shifts / on-call work8,859
Self-employed (other)7,680
Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure)5,324
Cash-paid construction & trades2,872
Volunteering / job training2,422
Full-time students not auto-verified2,007
Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service1,688
Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart)689
Medically frail without auto-match23,856
Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match12,042
Caregivers of a disabled adult10,247
Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤134,167
SUD treatment not flagged in claims data3,877
American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption)3,514
Recent incarceration (data-match gap)2,368
Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF)1,130
Pregnancy / postpartum data lag162

Can the state renew people automatically?

The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (79% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. Arkansas's composite score is 69 (mid band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.

ComponentScore
Composite69
Observed ex parte79
Core capability14
Data sources55
Historical churn70

How subjects overlap across exemption categories

Each subject adult sits in exactly one cell. Categories: Working ≥ qualifying hours / income; Parent caregiver of child ≤13; Medically frail; Full-time student.
CombinationAdultsShare
None of the four76,78135.1%
Medically frail37,94817.3%
Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤1334,54315.8%
Working ≥ qualifying hours / income32,52114.9%
Parent caregiver of child ≤1318,2618.3%
Full-time student4,1281.9%
Parent caregiver of child ≤13 + Medically frail3,4911.6%
Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Full-time student3,1151.4%

Counties in Arkansas

Subject adults concentrate: Pulaski County (26,960), Benton County (20,261), and Washington County (19,438) account for 30% of the state's subject population.

All 75 counties in Arkansas with subject adults, sorted by count. County figures are model allocations of the state estimate by ACS tract characteristics.
CountyAdults subjectSubject rateProjected lossPoverty rateWorking-age population
Pulaski County26,96011.5%12,25317.0%235,528
Benton County20,26111.2%9,2088.0%181,006
Washington County19,43812.2%8,83415.0%158,942
Faulkner County9,52012.1%4,32716.0%78,956
Sebastian County9,18812.3%4,17617.0%74,836
Saline County8,95612.3%4,07010.0%73,126
Craighead County7,75111.6%3,52319.0%67,099
Garland County7,49213.8%3,40517.0%54,480
White County5,69112.6%2,58716.0%45,331
Pope County4,87513.0%2,21518.0%37,498
Lonoke County4,84910.8%2,20412.0%44,830
Jefferson County4,40311.7%2,00120.0%37,722
Crawford County4,35212.5%1,97818.0%34,882
Baxter County3,45816.2%1,57214.0%21,363
Crittenden County3,21412.0%1,46120.0%26,694
Greene County3,16711.6%1,44018.0%27,234
Miller County2,99712.2%1,36221.0%24,644
Mississippi County2,95913.1%1,34522.0%22,526
Boone County2,83613.5%1,28913.0%21,055
Union County2,71812.8%1,23519.0%21,186
Independence County2,68712.5%1,22119.0%21,574
Hot Spring County2,42312.3%1,10120.0%19,706
Carroll County2,34015.3%1,06415.0%15,292
Cleburne County1,99015.0%90514.0%13,271
Johnson County1,90412.8%86621.0%14,874
Clark County1,84314.6%83820.0%12,638
Columbia County1,83814.1%83523.0%13,062
Conway County1,60613.4%73021.0%12,012
Ouachita County1,58913.0%72219.0%12,207
Logan County1,56012.7%70915.0%12,260
Poinsett County1,55912.3%70921.0%12,642
Polk County1,48314.3%67418.0%10,400
St. Francis County1,46310.9%66528.0%13,406
Marion County1,42516.0%64818.0%8,904
Yell County1,41912.2%64512.0%11,589
Drew County1,39014.1%63221.0%9,838
Hempstead County1,38512.8%63023.0%10,814
Ashley County1,37813.6%62623.0%10,104
Sharp County1,34314.2%61016.0%9,442
Grant County1,33212.3%60514.0%10,833
Franklin County1,30713.5%59420.0%9,718
Van Buren County1,29015.3%58619.0%8,446
Randolph County1,28112.3%58219.0%10,386
Sevier County1,26914.8%57720.0%8,544
Madison County1,25512.8%57016.0%9,774
Arkansas County1,22613.4%55717.0%9,174
Lawrence County1,20112.9%54618.0%9,294
Cross County1,13912.2%51820.0%9,326
Phillips County1,10713.9%50330.0%7,978
Izard County1,06813.6%48520.0%7,856
Jackson County1,06210.4%48320.0%10,162
Stone County1,02916.0%46721.0%6,426
Clay County1,01312.7%46019.0%7,968
Fulton County95414.8%43415.0%6,463
Little River County89113.6%40512.0%6,556
Howard County87512.8%39818.0%6,816
Desha County76813.3%34927.0%5,788
Perry County76213.5%34615.0%5,662
Scott County74813.6%34017.0%5,490
Montgomery County73916.2%33618.0%4,562
Pike County73013.0%33217.0%5,611
Bradley County72713.0%33115.0%5,597
Chicot County69913.1%31827.0%5,336
Lincoln County6807.6%30918.0%8,893
Nevada County66614.9%30328.0%4,455
Searcy County64815.4%29427.0%4,204
Newton County64217.1%29211.0%3,762
Prairie County63014.2%28610.0%4,435
Lafayette County54316.2%24722.0%3,364
Cleveland County52912.7%24014.0%4,170
Lee County51210.3%23328.0%4,947
Woodruff County49915.8%22719.0%3,150
Dallas County49314.7%22412.0%3,356
Monroe County46613.5%21224.0%3,460
Calhoun County37014.1%16812.0%2,616

State brief and methodology

Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.

Sources

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