Gizmo Warehouseby Joe Eichenbaum | 17A

Medicaid work requirements · Georgia

Medicaid work requirements in Georgia: who is subject and who loses coverage (2027)

Data snapshot 2026-06-03 · part of These 5 Million People Are About to Lose Their Medicaid — But They Don't Have To

Georgia has not adopted the ACA expansion but covers a similar population under a waiver, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 reaches about 3,916 adults there. Pathways to Coverage enrollees (Section 1115 waiver; already work-conditional).

This model's bottom-up estimate is that 0 people in Georgia lose coverage by 2034: 0 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 0 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.

Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. Georgia scores null of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a null band; its eligibility system is Gateway.

Key figures

Model v2-2026-06-03. "Strict" counts adults whose ACS record shows them subject with no observable exemption; "permissive" allows the broader exemption reading.
MeasureGeorgia
Expansion stateNo
Subject to the requirement via waiverYes
Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64)8,000
Adults subject, strict definition3,916
Adults subject, permissive definition3,838
Share of expansion pool subject0.1%
Projected coverage loss by 20340
Hardship exception statusNon expansion
Early implementerNo
Ex parte capability score (0 to 100)null (null)

Why eligible people lose coverage

Of the 0 projected to lose coverage in Georgia, 0 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 0 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 0 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.

Bottom-up model v8.0-2026-05-30; documentation-failure buckets compound over the 14 six-month renewal cycles through 2034.
GroupProjected to lose coverage
Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart)0
Cash-paid construction & trades0
Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure)0
Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service0
Self-employed (other)0
Variable shifts / on-call work0
Full-time students not auto-verified0
Volunteering / job training0
Medically frail without auto-match0
Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match0
Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤130
Caregivers of a disabled adult0
SUD treatment not flagged in claims data0
Recent incarceration (data-match gap)0
Pregnancy / postpartum data lag0
American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption)0
Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF)0

Can the state renew people automatically?

The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (74% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. Georgia's composite score is null (null band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.

ComponentScore
Composite
Observed ex parte
Core capability
Data sources
Historical churn

Counties in Georgia

Subject adults concentrate: Fulton County (361), Gwinnett County (346), and Cobb County (273) account for 25% of the state's subject population.

All 159 counties in Georgia with subject adults, sorted by count. County figures are model allocations of the state estimate by ACS tract characteristics.
CountyAdults subjectSubject rateProjected lossPoverty rateWorking-age population
Fulton County3610.1%012.0%699,911
Gwinnett County3460.1%010.0%600,538
Cobb County2730.1%08.0%484,272
DeKalb County2470.1%013.0%476,982
Chatham County1070.1%014.0%183,652
Cherokee County1070.1%07.0%169,134
Clayton County990.1%017.0%182,864
Forsyth County940.1%05.0%161,189
Henry County880.1%08.0%152,752
Hall County820.1%014.0%124,804
Richmond County680.1%021.0%124,173
Muscogee County650.1%019.0%120,296
Paulding County610.1%07.0%110,110
Houston County580.1%010.0%101,026
Clarke County580.1%027.0%86,666
Columbia County560.1%07.0%95,734
Coweta County560.1%08.0%92,736
Bibb County550.1%025.0%90,502
Douglas County520.1%012.0%90,426
Fayette County500.1%05.0%68,694
Carroll County470.1%017.0%74,918
Lowndes County440.1%021.0%72,244
Bartow County410.1%011.0%68,997
Newton County400.1%013.0%70,620
Whitfield County390.1%013.0%61,000
Walton County390.1%013.0%60,430
Bulloch County380.1%023.0%52,628
Floyd County370.1%018.0%58,474
Rockdale County360.1%011.0%56,288
Glynn County330.1%016.0%47,186
Barrow County320.1%010.0%54,750
Jackson County300.1%08.0%50,164
Dougherty County290.1%026.0%47,242
Walker County260.1%014.0%40,000
Spalding County260.1%019.0%38,962
Troup County250.1%019.0%41,118
Catoosa County250.1%09.0%40,049
Effingham County230.1%07.0%41,519
Liberty County210.1%015.0%40,900
Gordon County210.1%014.0%35,286
Camden County190.1%016.0%33,832
Baldwin County180.1%023.0%26,518
Habersham County180.1%014.0%27,402
Colquitt County180.1%024.0%26,344
Oconee County170.1%04.0%24,492
Laurens County170.1%024.0%27,898
Thomas County170.1%019.0%25,738
Lumpkin County170.1%015.0%20,825
Polk County160.1%017.0%25,576
Bryan County150.1%07.0%28,303
Murray County150.1%013.0%24,397
Tift County150.1%021.0%23,706
Pickens County150.1%013.0%20,034
Coffee County150.1%020.0%25,716
Harris County150.1%08.0%20,890
Gilmer County140.1%015.0%17,468
Madison County130.1%021.0%17,990
White County120.1%013.0%16,196
Union County120.1%012.0%13,140
Fannin County120.1%012.0%13,597
Ware County120.1%024.0%20,470
Dawson County120.1%010.0%17,953
Lee County120.1%09.0%19,930
Monroe County120.1%014.0%17,161
Haralson County110.1%013.0%18,690
Sumter County110.1%024.0%16,723
Stephens County110.1%013.0%15,146
Peach County110.1%021.0%17,046
Putnam County100.1%016.0%12,501
Toombs County100.1%022.0%14,946
Wayne County100.1%018.0%18,184
Burke County100.1%017.0%13,854
Hart County100.1%011.0%15,132
Upson County100.1%022.0%16,136
Jones County100.1%014.0%16,732
Decatur County100.1%024.0%16,827
Grady County100.1%020.0%14,468
Greene County90.1%013.0%10,226
Emanuel County90.1%021.0%13,198
McDuffie County90.1%016.0%11,939
Chattooga County90.1%020.0%14,610
Butts County90.1%016.0%16,536
Franklin County90.1%018.0%13,974
Tattnall County80.1%020.0%15,300
Lamar County80.1%011.0%11,728
Mitchell County80.1%029.0%12,112
Pierce County80.1%015.0%11,552
Banks County80.1%013.0%11,618
Worth County80.1%020.0%11,610
Meriwether County80.1%022.0%11,888
Crisp County80.1%024.0%10,944
Morgan County80.1%09.0%11,844
Appling County70.1%025.0%10,461
Rabun County70.1%014.0%9,368
Berrien County70.1%023.0%10,620
Elbert County70.1%019.0%11,104
Washington County70.1%017.0%11,682
Brantley County70.1%016.0%11,123
Cook County70.1%022.0%10,037
Pike County70.1%08.0%11,865
Dodge County70.1%022.0%11,908
Towns County70.1%015.0%6,198
Jefferson County60.1%019.0%8,688
Charlton County60.1%020.0%7,890
Long County60.1%016.0%11,232
Brooks County60.1%027.0%9,185
Oglethorpe County60.1%011.0%8,981
Ben Hill County60.1%026.0%9,665
Jeff Davis County60.1%023.0%8,544
Dade County60.1%07.0%9,195
Jasper County60.1%013.0%9,258
Crawford County50.1%017.0%7,084
Screven County50.1%018.0%8,162
McIntosh County50.1%020.0%6,175
Bleckley County50.1%017.0%7,294
Candler County50.1%018.0%6,076
Telfair County40.1%031.0%7,467
Wilkes County40.1%018.0%5,274
Heard County40.1%017.0%6,879
Twiggs County40.1%016.0%4,322
Lincoln County40.1%018.0%4,300
Wheeler County40.1%027.0%4,547
Montgomery County40.1%017.0%5,105
Pulaski County40.1%019.0%5,826
Macon County40.1%026.0%7,344
Bacon County40.1%022.0%6,130
Johnson County40.1%022.0%5,618
Lanier County40.1%032.0%6,176
Irwin County40.1%022.0%5,356
Evans County40.1%021.0%6,076
Early County40.1%022.0%5,725
Wilkinson County30.1%022.0%4,928
Talbot County30.1%018.0%3,176
Hancock County30.1%027.0%5,244
Taylor County30.1%029.0%4,484
Wilcox County30.1%023.0%5,300
Atkinson County30.1%028.0%4,934
Terrell County30.1%030.0%4,899
Jenkins County30.1%028.0%5,256
Clinch County30.1%032.0%3,808
Seminole County30.1%021.0%4,885
Dooly County30.1%021.0%6,734
Turner County30.1%022.0%4,840
Marion County30.1%012.0%4,278
Treutlen County20.1%028.0%3,694
Warren County20.1%023.0%2,856
Schley County20.1%016.0%2,702
Randolph County20.1%028.0%3,094
Calhoun County20.0%026.0%3,644
Miller County20.1%024.0%3,158
Taliaferro County10.1%019.0%805
Baker County10.1%023.0%1,543
Echols County10.1%015.0%2,083
Quitman County10.1%015.0%1,095
Glascock County10.1%016.0%1,682
Stewart County10.0%022.0%3,482
Chattahoochee County10.0%017.0%6,777
Clay County10.1%026.0%1,412
Webster County10.1%028.0%1,538

State brief and methodology

Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.

Sources

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