Idaho expanded Medicaid, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 applies to its expansion adults. About 83,021 of them (7.5% of an expansion pool of 88,751) will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, or service, or an exemption, to keep coverage.
This model's bottom-up estimate is that 33,487 people in Idaho lose coverage by 2034: 30,996 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 2,491 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.
Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. Idaho scores 59 of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a mid band; its eligibility system is iBES.
Key figures
| Measure | Idaho |
|---|---|
| Expansion state | Yes |
| Subject to the requirement via waiver | No |
| Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64) | 88,751 |
| Adults subject, strict definition | 83,021 |
| Adults subject, permissive definition | 81,361 |
| Share of expansion pool subject | 7.5% |
| Projected coverage loss by 2034 | 33,487 |
| Hardship exception status | Adopting |
| Early implementer | No |
| Ex parte capability score (0 to 100) | 59 (mid) |
Who is subject in Idaho
Of the 83,021 subject adults, 42% already work 80 or more hours a month and 48% are not working. 46% have a child under 14 at home. Among those not working, 49% report a disability and 23% are caregivers.
| Characteristic | Share of subject adults |
|---|---|
| Age 19-24 | 13% |
| Age 25-34 | 28% |
| Age 35-44 | 22% |
| Age 45-54 | 17% |
| Age 55-64 | 21% |
| Not working | 48% |
| 1 to 19 hours a month | 1% |
| 20 to 79 hours a month | 9% |
| 80 or more hours a month (meets the bar) | 42% |
| Not working: Disabled | 49% |
| Not working: Caregiver | 23% |
| Not working: Postpartum | 0% |
| Not working: Student | 2% |
| Not working: Other | 26% |
Why eligible people lose coverage
Of the 33,487 projected to lose coverage in Idaho, 30,996 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 9,720 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 21,277 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.
| Group | Projected to lose coverage |
|---|---|
| Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure) | 2,940 |
| Self-employed (other) | 2,387 |
| Variable shifts / on-call work | 1,567 |
| Cash-paid construction & trades | 836 |
| Full-time students not auto-verified | 653 |
| Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service | 558 |
| Volunteering / job training | 505 |
| Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart) | 273 |
| Medically frail without auto-match | 7,703 |
| Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match | 5,880 |
| Caregivers of a disabled adult | 3,214 |
| SUD treatment not flagged in claims data | 1,397 |
| American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption) | 903 |
| Recent incarceration (data-match gap) | 898 |
| Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤13 | 770 |
| Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF) | 429 |
| Pregnancy / postpartum data lag | 82 |
Can the state renew people automatically?
The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (65% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. Idaho's composite score is 59 (mid band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Composite | 59 |
| Observed ex parte | 65 |
| Core capability | 66 |
| Data sources | 55 |
| Historical churn | 50 |
How subjects overlap across exemption categories
| Combination | Adults | Share |
|---|---|---|
| None of the four | 23,126 | 27.9% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 15,963 | 19.2% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income | 12,862 | 15.5% |
| Medically frail | 11,740 | 14.1% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 8,819 | 10.6% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Full-time student | 2,045 | 2.5% |
| Full-time student | 2,018 | 2.4% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 + Full-time student | 1,942 | 2.3% |
Counties in Idaho
Subject adults concentrate: Ada County (21,102), Canyon County (10,137), and Kootenai County (7,753) account for 47% of the state's subject population.
| County | Adults subject | Subject rate | Projected loss | Poverty rate | Working-age population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada County | 21,102 | 6.7% | 8,512 | 9.0% | 313,723 |
| Canyon County | 10,137 | 7.0% | 4,089 | 10.0% | 143,854 |
| Kootenai County | 7,753 | 7.5% | 3,127 | 9.0% | 103,027 |
| Bonneville County | 5,205 | 7.3% | 2,099 | 9.0% | 71,394 |
| Bannock County | 3,897 | 7.5% | 1,572 | 13.0% | 51,906 |
| Twin Falls County | 3,825 | 7.3% | 1,543 | 12.0% | 52,218 |
| Madison County | 3,073 | 8.9% | 1,239 | 30.0% | 34,452 |
| Bonner County | 2,475 | 9.1% | 998 | 12.0% | 27,149 |
| Latah County | 2,240 | 8.8% | 904 | 14.0% | 25,600 |
| Bingham County | 2,141 | 7.9% | 864 | 10.0% | 27,086 |
| Nez Perce County | 1,876 | 7.8% | 757 | 14.0% | 24,032 |
| Jefferson County | 1,364 | 7.6% | 550 | 9.0% | 18,046 |
| Blaine County | 1,198 | 8.5% | 483 | 7.0% | 14,106 |
| Payette County | 1,131 | 7.9% | 456 | 11.0% | 14,360 |
| Cassia County | 1,121 | 8.2% | 452 | 10.0% | 13,604 |
| Elmore County | 1,029 | 5.9% | 415 | 12.0% | 17,413 |
| Jerome County | 1,016 | 7.2% | 410 | 15.0% | 14,015 |
| Gem County | 970 | 8.7% | 391 | 12.0% | 11,103 |
| Minidoka County | 953 | 7.9% | 385 | 15.0% | 12,099 |
| Idaho County | 889 | 10.2% | 359 | 10.0% | 8,722 |
| Gooding County | 735 | 8.5% | 296 | 13.0% | 8,601 |
| Franklin County | 686 | 8.5% | 277 | 10.0% | 8,059 |
| Boundary County | 660 | 9.6% | 266 | 18.0% | 6,873 |
| Valley County | 630 | 9.5% | 254 | 14.0% | 6,651 |
| Shoshone County | 615 | 8.1% | 248 | 16.0% | 7,596 |
| Fremont County | 580 | 7.3% | 234 | 11.0% | 7,889 |
| Owyhee County | 554 | 8.0% | 224 | 13.0% | 6,894 |
| Washington County | 537 | 9.7% | 216 | 18.0% | 5,534 |
| Benewah County | 487 | 9.0% | 196 | 15.0% | 5,407 |
| Teton County | 475 | 6.1% | 192 | 10.0% | 7,756 |
| Lemhi County | 452 | 10.9% | 182 | 11.0% | 4,162 |
| Boise County | 432 | 9.6% | 174 | 9.0% | 4,522 |
| Clearwater County | 415 | 8.3% | 167 | 11.0% | 4,978 |
| Power County | 369 | 8.9% | 149 | 11.0% | 4,164 |
| Caribou County | 320 | 8.2% | 129 | 7.0% | 3,895 |
| Bear Lake County | 306 | 9.3% | 124 | 11.0% | 3,302 |
| Adams County | 275 | 11.3% | 111 | 15.0% | 2,430 |
| Custer County | 257 | 11.7% | 104 | 12.0% | 2,204 |
| Lincoln County | 235 | 7.6% | 95 | 12.0% | 3,082 |
| Oneida County | 215 | 8.6% | 87 | 13.0% | 2,485 |
| Lewis County | 186 | 10.3% | 75 | 18.0% | 1,806 |
| Butte County | 128 | 9.0% | 52 | 22.0% | 1,426 |
| Clark County | 39 | 7.9% | 16 | 9.0% | 492 |
| Camas County | 36 | 6.0% | 15 | 7.0% | 604 |
State brief and methodology
Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.