New Hampshire expanded Medicaid, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 applies to its expansion adults. About 56,968 of them (6.8% of an expansion pool of 60,900) will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, or service, or an exemption, to keep coverage.
This model's bottom-up estimate is that 19,288 people in New Hampshire lose coverage by 2034: 17,579 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 1,709 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.
Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. New Hampshire scores 71 of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a low band; its eligibility system is NH EASY.
Key figures
| Measure | New Hampshire |
|---|---|
| Expansion state | Yes |
| Subject to the requirement via waiver | No |
| Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64) | 60,900 |
| Adults subject, strict definition | 56,968 |
| Adults subject, permissive definition | 55,829 |
| Share of expansion pool subject | 6.8% |
| Projected coverage loss by 2034 | 19,288 |
| Hardship exception status | Adopting |
| Early implementer | No |
| Ex parte capability score (0 to 100) | 71 (low) |
Who is subject in New Hampshire
Of the 56,968 subject adults, 32% already work 80 or more hours a month and 59% are not working. 31% have a child under 14 at home. Among those not working, 61% report a disability and 11% are caregivers.
| Characteristic | Share of subject adults |
|---|---|
| Age 19-24 | 12% |
| Age 25-34 | 24% |
| Age 35-44 | 20% |
| Age 45-54 | 14% |
| Age 55-64 | 30% |
| Not working | 59% |
| 1 to 19 hours a month | 1% |
| 20 to 79 hours a month | 7% |
| 80 or more hours a month (meets the bar) | 32% |
| Not working: Disabled | 61% |
| Not working: Caregiver | 11% |
| Not working: Postpartum | 0% |
| Not working: Student | 2% |
| Not working: Other | 26% |
Why eligible people lose coverage
Of the 19,288 projected to lose coverage in New Hampshire, 17,579 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 5,387 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 12,192 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.
| Group | Projected to lose coverage |
|---|---|
| Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure) | 1,694 |
| Variable shifts / on-call work | 1,198 |
| Self-employed (other) | 1,053 |
| Full-time students not auto-verified | 352 |
| Volunteering / job training | 347 |
| Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service | 286 |
| Cash-paid construction & trades | 263 |
| Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart) | 194 |
| Medically frail without auto-match | 5,071 |
| Caregivers of a disabled adult | 2,477 |
| Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match | 2,088 |
| Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤13 | 1,069 |
| SUD treatment not flagged in claims data | 469 |
| American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption) | 412 |
| Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF) | 294 |
| Recent incarceration (data-match gap) | 277 |
| Pregnancy / postpartum data lag | 37 |
Can the state renew people automatically?
The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (76% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. New Hampshire's composite score is 71 (low band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Composite | 71 |
| Observed ex parte | 76 |
| Core capability | 62 |
| Data sources | 65 |
| Historical churn | 70 |
How subjects overlap across exemption categories
| Combination | Adults | Share |
|---|---|---|
| None of the four | 20,131 | 35.3% |
| Medically frail | 12,966 | 22.8% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income | 9,239 | 16.2% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 6,191 | 10.9% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 3,081 | 5.4% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Full-time student | 1,491 | 2.6% |
| Full-time student | 1,389 | 2.4% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Medically frail | 911 | 1.6% |
Counties in New Hampshire
Subject adults concentrate: Hillsborough County (16,476), Rockingham County (12,898), and Merrimack County (6,199) account for 62% of the state's subject population.
| County | Adults subject | Subject rate | Projected loss | Poverty rate | Working-age population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough County | 16,476 | 6.2% | 5,578 | 7.0% | 264,170 |
| Rockingham County | 12,898 | 6.7% | 4,367 | 5.0% | 192,068 |
| Merrimack County | 6,199 | 6.6% | 2,099 | 7.0% | 94,055 |
| Strafford County | 5,495 | 6.6% | 1,860 | 9.0% | 82,986 |
| Grafton County | 4,195 | 7.7% | 1,420 | 10.0% | 54,496 |
| Cheshire County | 3,350 | 7.5% | 1,134 | 9.0% | 44,906 |
| Belknap County | 2,729 | 7.3% | 924 | 9.0% | 37,396 |
| Carroll County | 2,504 | 9.0% | 848 | 8.0% | 27,806 |
| Sullivan County | 1,807 | 7.2% | 612 | 12.0% | 25,212 |
| Coos County | 1,315 | 7.4% | 445 | 12.0% | 17,870 |
State brief and methodology
Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.