New Jersey expanded Medicaid, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 applies to its expansion adults. About 511,168 of them (9.1% of an expansion pool of 546,446) will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, or service, or an exemption, to keep coverage.
This model's bottom-up estimate is that 163,511 people in New Jersey lose coverage by 2034: 148,176 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 15,335 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.
Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. New Jersey scores 60 of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a mid band; its eligibility system is NJ FamilyCare.
Key figures
| Measure | New Jersey |
|---|---|
| Expansion state | Yes |
| Subject to the requirement via waiver | No |
| Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64) | 546,446 |
| Adults subject, strict definition | 511,168 |
| Adults subject, permissive definition | 500,945 |
| Share of expansion pool subject | 9.1% |
| Projected coverage loss by 2034 | 163,511 |
| Hardship exception status | Adopting |
| Early implementer | No |
| Ex parte capability score (0 to 100) | 60 (mid) |
Who is subject in New Jersey
Of the 511,168 subject adults, 37% already work 80 or more hours a month and 55% are not working. 40% have a child under 14 at home. Among those not working, 40% report a disability and 22% are caregivers.
| Characteristic | Share of subject adults |
|---|---|
| Age 19-24 | 14% |
| Age 25-34 | 21% |
| Age 35-44 | 22% |
| Age 45-54 | 19% |
| Age 55-64 | 24% |
| Not working | 55% |
| 1 to 19 hours a month | 1% |
| 20 to 79 hours a month | 8% |
| 80 or more hours a month (meets the bar) | 37% |
| Not working: Disabled | 40% |
| Not working: Caregiver | 22% |
| Not working: Postpartum | 0% |
| Not working: Student | 4% |
| Not working: Other | 34% |
Why eligible people lose coverage
Of the 163,511 projected to lose coverage in New Jersey, 148,176 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 81,466 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 66,710 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.
| Group | Projected to lose coverage |
|---|---|
| Variable shifts / on-call work | 19,886 |
| Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure) | 19,358 |
| Self-employed (other) | 18,084 |
| Full-time students not auto-verified | 7,038 |
| Volunteering / job training | 5,656 |
| Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart) | 4,488 |
| Cash-paid construction & trades | 3,937 |
| Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service | 3,020 |
| Medically frail without auto-match | 25,726 |
| Caregivers of a disabled adult | 18,807 |
| Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match | 7,243 |
| American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption) | 6,146 |
| SUD treatment not flagged in claims data | 3,436 |
| Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤13 | 2,637 |
| Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF) | 1,584 |
| Recent incarceration (data-match gap) | 768 |
| Pregnancy / postpartum data lag | 363 |
Can the state renew people automatically?
The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (54% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. New Jersey's composite score is 60 (mid band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Composite | 60 |
| Observed ex parte | 54 |
| Core capability | 64 |
| Data sources | 72 |
| Historical churn | 50 |
How subjects overlap across exemption categories
| Combination | Adults | Share |
|---|---|---|
| None of the four | 171,966 | 33.6% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income | 83,404 | 16.3% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 81,053 | 15.9% |
| Medically frail | 65,671 | 12.8% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 45,343 | 8.9% |
| Full-time student | 25,456 | 5.0% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Full-time student | 12,535 | 2.5% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 + Full-time student | 8,426 | 1.7% |
Counties in New Jersey
Subject adults concentrate: Bergen County (53,667), Middlesex County (48,101), and Essex County (43,263) account for 28% of the state's subject population.
| County | Adults subject | Subject rate | Projected loss | Poverty rate | Working-age population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen County | 53,667 | 9.3% | 17,167 | 7.0% | 575,394 |
| Middlesex County | 48,101 | 9.1% | 15,386 | 8.0% | 530,555 |
| Essex County | 43,263 | 8.2% | 13,839 | 15.0% | 525,721 |
| Ocean County | 38,295 | 11.4% | 12,250 | 10.0% | 336,453 |
| Monmouth County | 37,995 | 10.0% | 12,154 | 6.0% | 379,670 |
| Hudson County | 32,550 | 6.8% | 10,412 | 14.0% | 478,702 |
| Union County | 30,764 | 8.8% | 9,841 | 9.0% | 348,895 |
| Morris County | 29,288 | 9.5% | 9,369 | 5.0% | 308,734 |
| Passaic County | 28,529 | 9.3% | 9,126 | 13.0% | 308,286 |
| Camden County | 27,675 | 8.8% | 8,853 | 12.0% | 314,652 |
| Burlington County | 25,412 | 9.0% | 8,129 | 7.0% | 281,138 |
| Mercer County | 21,577 | 9.3% | 6,902 | 11.0% | 233,242 |
| Somerset County | 19,529 | 9.2% | 6,247 | 5.0% | 212,434 |
| Gloucester County | 17,558 | 9.5% | 5,616 | 7.0% | 185,682 |
| Atlantic County | 16,113 | 10.0% | 5,154 | 13.0% | 160,602 |
| Sussex County | 8,600 | 9.8% | 2,751 | 6.0% | 88,164 |
| Cumberland County | 7,967 | 8.9% | 2,549 | 16.0% | 89,910 |
| Hunterdon County | 7,923 | 10.3% | 2,534 | 4.0% | 76,822 |
| Warren County | 6,579 | 9.9% | 2,104 | 8.0% | 66,570 |
| Cape May County | 6,161 | 12.3% | 1,971 | 9.0% | 49,948 |
| Salem County | 3,624 | 9.6% | 1,159 | 13.0% | 37,816 |
State brief and methodology
Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.