New Mexico expanded Medicaid, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 applies to its expansion adults. About 231,344 of them (18.9% of an expansion pool of 247,310) will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, or service, or an exemption, to keep coverage.
This model's bottom-up estimate is that 85,410 people in New Mexico lose coverage by 2034: 78,470 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 6,940 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.
Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. New Mexico scores 62 of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a mid band; its eligibility system is ASPEN.
Key figures
| Measure | New Mexico |
|---|---|
| Expansion state | Yes |
| Subject to the requirement via waiver | No |
| Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64) | 247,310 |
| Adults subject, strict definition | 231,344 |
| Adults subject, permissive definition | 226,717 |
| Share of expansion pool subject | 18.9% |
| Projected coverage loss by 2034 | 85,410 |
| Hardship exception status | Adopting |
| Early implementer | No |
| Ex parte capability score (0 to 100) | 62 (mid) |
Who is subject in New Mexico
Of the 231,344 subject adults, 41% already work 80 or more hours a month and 53% are not working. 38% have a child under 14 at home. Among those not working, 45% report a disability and 20% are caregivers.
| Characteristic | Share of subject adults |
|---|---|
| Age 19-24 | 15% |
| Age 25-34 | 23% |
| Age 35-44 | 21% |
| Age 45-54 | 17% |
| Age 55-64 | 23% |
| Not working | 53% |
| 1 to 19 hours a month | 1% |
| 20 to 79 hours a month | 5% |
| 80 or more hours a month (meets the bar) | 41% |
| Not working: Disabled | 45% |
| Not working: Caregiver | 20% |
| Not working: Postpartum | 0% |
| Not working: Student | 4% |
| Not working: Other | 31% |
Why eligible people lose coverage
Of the 85,410 projected to lose coverage in New Mexico, 78,470 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 24,116 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 54,353 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.
| Group | Projected to lose coverage |
|---|---|
| Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure) | 7,953 |
| Variable shifts / on-call work | 5,276 |
| Self-employed (other) | 4,189 |
| Full-time students not auto-verified | 1,820 |
| Cash-paid construction & trades | 1,506 |
| Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service | 1,408 |
| Volunteering / job training | 1,408 |
| Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart) | 555 |
| American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption) | 12,786 |
| Medically frail without auto-match | 12,250 |
| Caregivers of a disabled adult | 10,548 |
| Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match | 9,936 |
| Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤13 | 4,693 |
| SUD treatment not flagged in claims data | 2,082 |
| Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF) | 1,195 |
| Recent incarceration (data-match gap) | 740 |
| Pregnancy / postpartum data lag | 123 |
Can the state renew people automatically?
The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (63% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. New Mexico's composite score is 62 (mid band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Composite | 62 |
| Observed ex parte | 63 |
| Core capability | 62 |
| Data sources | 65 |
| Historical churn | 50 |
How subjects overlap across exemption categories
| Combination | Adults | Share |
|---|---|---|
| None of the four | 82,571 | 35.7% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income | 50,255 | 21.7% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 30,856 | 13.3% |
| Medically frail | 29,865 | 12.9% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 12,378 | 5.3% |
| Full-time student | 7,834 | 3.4% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Full-time student | 6,797 | 2.9% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 + Full-time student | 3,455 | 1.5% |
Counties in New Mexico
Subject adults concentrate: Bernalillo County (69,712), Doña Ana County (26,086), and Santa Fe County (18,762) account for 50% of the state's subject population.
| County | Adults subject | Subject rate | Projected loss | Poverty rate | Working-age population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo County | 69,712 | 17.2% | 25,737 | 16.0% | 405,612 |
| Doña Ana County | 26,086 | 20.1% | 9,631 | 23.0% | 129,754 |
| Santa Fe County | 18,762 | 21.9% | 6,927 | 12.0% | 85,652 |
| Sandoval County | 17,132 | 19.6% | 6,325 | 10.0% | 87,628 |
| San Juan County | 12,765 | 18.6% | 4,713 | 25.0% | 68,738 |
| Valencia County | 8,396 | 18.6% | 3,100 | 18.0% | 45,014 |
| Lea County | 7,873 | 18.6% | 2,907 | 18.0% | 42,376 |
| Otero County | 7,022 | 17.2% | 2,593 | 19.0% | 40,764 |
| Chaves County | 6,949 | 18.9% | 2,566 | 22.0% | 36,772 |
| McKinley County | 6,828 | 16.8% | 2,521 | 34.0% | 40,610 |
| Eddy County | 6,723 | 18.8% | 2,482 | 12.0% | 35,758 |
| Rio Arriba County | 4,691 | 21.5% | 1,732 | 22.0% | 21,798 |
| Curry County | 4,440 | 15.8% | 1,639 | 19.0% | 28,135 |
| Taos County | 4,116 | 22.4% | 1,520 | 15.0% | 18,396 |
| Grant County | 3,510 | 25.1% | 1,296 | 20.0% | 14,004 |
| San Miguel County | 3,074 | 20.4% | 1,135 | 24.0% | 15,032 |
| Luna County | 3,025 | 22.9% | 1,117 | 23.0% | 13,230 |
| Cibola County | 2,682 | 17.3% | 990 | 27.0% | 15,486 |
| Lincoln County | 2,556 | 24.4% | 944 | 16.0% | 10,460 |
| Roosevelt County | 2,178 | 20.1% | 804 | 21.0% | 10,862 |
| Los Alamos County | 2,115 | 18.5% | 781 | 4.0% | 11,457 |
| Socorro County | 2,073 | 24.6% | 765 | 31.0% | 8,440 |
| Torrance County | 1,783 | 20.8% | 658 | 21.0% | 8,591 |
| Sierra County | 1,538 | 29.5% | 568 | 25.0% | 5,220 |
| Colfax County | 1,474 | 22.8% | 544 | 18.0% | 6,470 |
| Quay County | 1,174 | 25.9% | 433 | 25.0% | 4,534 |
| Catron County | 631 | 36.6% | 233 | 21.0% | 1,724 |
| Mora County | 502 | 25.2% | 185 | 22.0% | 1,991 |
| Guadalupe County | 496 | 18.8% | 183 | 21.0% | 2,631 |
| Hidalgo County | 409 | 18.7% | 151 | 23.0% | 2,189 |
| Union County | 398 | 18.0% | 147 | 18.0% | 2,213 |
| De Baca County | 136 | 15.9% | 50 | 16.0% | 855 |
| Harding County | 94 | 27.8% | 35 | 14.0% | 338 |
State brief and methodology
Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.