Vermont expanded Medicaid, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 applies to its expansion adults. About 57,298 of them (15.0% of an expansion pool of 61,252) will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, or service, or an exemption, to keep coverage.
This model's bottom-up estimate is that 16,488 people in Vermont lose coverage by 2034: 14,769 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 1,719 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.
Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. Vermont scores 74 of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a low band; its eligibility system is VHC / ACCESS.
Key figures
| Measure | Vermont |
|---|---|
| Expansion state | Yes |
| Subject to the requirement via waiver | No |
| Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64) | 61,252 |
| Adults subject, strict definition | 57,298 |
| Adults subject, permissive definition | 56,152 |
| Share of expansion pool subject | 15.0% |
| Projected coverage loss by 2034 | 16,488 |
| Hardship exception status | No qualifying counties |
| Early implementer | No |
| Ex parte capability score (0 to 100) | 74 (low) |
Who is subject in Vermont
Of the 57,297 subject adults, 32% already work 80 or more hours a month and 55% are not working. 26% have a child under 14 at home. Among those not working, 56% report a disability and 10% are caregivers.
| Characteristic | Share of subject adults |
|---|---|
| Age 19-24 | 13% |
| Age 25-34 | 20% |
| Age 35-44 | 21% |
| Age 45-54 | 19% |
| Age 55-64 | 27% |
| Not working | 55% |
| 1 to 19 hours a month | 1% |
| 20 to 79 hours a month | 12% |
| 80 or more hours a month (meets the bar) | 32% |
| Not working: Disabled | 56% |
| Not working: Caregiver | 10% |
| Not working: Postpartum | 1% |
| Not working: Student | 3% |
| Not working: Other | 30% |
Why eligible people lose coverage
Of the 16,488 projected to lose coverage in Vermont, 14,769 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 6,500 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 8,270 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.
| Group | Projected to lose coverage |
|---|---|
| Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure) | 2,154 |
| Self-employed (other) | 1,575 |
| Variable shifts / on-call work | 1,085 |
| Full-time students not auto-verified | 451 |
| Cash-paid construction & trades | 394 |
| Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service | 370 |
| Volunteering / job training | 349 |
| Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart) | 121 |
| Medically frail without auto-match | 3,650 |
| Caregivers of a disabled adult | 2,356 |
| Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match | 604 |
| SUD treatment not flagged in claims data | 544 |
| American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption) | 526 |
| Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤13 | 318 |
| Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF) | 178 |
| Recent incarceration (data-match gap) | 74 |
| Pregnancy / postpartum data lag | 20 |
Can the state renew people automatically?
The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (82% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. Vermont's composite score is 74 (low band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Composite | 74 |
| Observed ex parte | 82 |
| Core capability | 93 |
| Data sources | 72 |
| Historical churn | 50 |
How subjects overlap across exemption categories
| Combination | Adults | Share |
|---|---|---|
| None of the four | 21,543 | 37.6% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income | 9,892 | 17.3% |
| Medically frail | 9,184 | 16.0% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 6,102 | 10.7% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 | 4,453 | 7.8% |
| Full-time student | 2,588 | 4.5% |
| Working ≥ qualifying hours / income + Full-time student | 1,302 | 2.3% |
| Parent caregiver of child ≤13 + Medically frail | 888 | 1.6% |
Counties in Vermont
Subject adults concentrate: Chittenden County (14,860), Rutland County (5,428), and Washington County (5,286) account for 45% of the state's subject population.
| County | Adults subject | Subject rate | Projected loss | Poverty rate | Working-age population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden County | 14,860 | 13.8% | 4,276 | 11.0% | 107,448 |
| Rutland County | 5,428 | 15.9% | 1,562 | 11.0% | 34,196 |
| Washington County | 5,286 | 14.9% | 1,521 | 10.0% | 35,460 |
| Windsor County | 5,151 | 15.9% | 1,482 | 9.0% | 32,456 |
| Windham County | 4,444 | 17.2% | 1,279 | 13.0% | 25,846 |
| Franklin County | 3,925 | 13.0% | 1,130 | 10.0% | 30,210 |
| Addison County | 3,607 | 16.3% | 1,038 | 7.0% | 22,180 |
| Bennington County | 3,324 | 16.0% | 956 | 11.0% | 20,726 |
| Caledonia County | 2,709 | 15.5% | 780 | 12.0% | 17,460 |
| Orange County | 2,688 | 15.7% | 774 | 9.0% | 17,090 |
| Orleans County | 2,393 | 15.5% | 689 | 10.0% | 15,409 |
| Lamoille County | 2,169 | 13.8% | 624 | 9.0% | 15,769 |
| Grand Isle County | 743 | 17.1% | 214 | 7.0% | 4,358 |
| Essex County | 571 | 17.4% | 164 | 13.0% | 3,281 |
State brief and methodology
Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.