Wisconsin has not adopted the ACA expansion but covers a similar population under a waiver, so the federal work requirement that takes effect January 1, 2027 reaches about 121,155 adults there. BadgerCare Plus childless adults (Section 1115 waiver, ≤100% FPL).
This model's bottom-up estimate is that 38,753 people in Wisconsin lose coverage by 2034: 35,118 of them still eligible but lost to paperwork and reporting failures, and 3,635 not meeting the requirement. Nationally the same model gives 5,461,400, against CBO's 5,200,000.
Whether those eligible people keep coverage depends on the state's ability to renew them automatically (ex parte) from data it already holds. Wisconsin scores null of 100 on this model's ex parte capability index, a null band; its eligibility system is CARES.
Key figures
| Measure | Wisconsin |
|---|---|
| Expansion state | No |
| Subject to the requirement via waiver | Yes |
| Expansion pool (adults 19 to 64) | 198,000 |
| Adults subject, strict definition | 121,155 |
| Adults subject, permissive definition | 118,732 |
| Share of expansion pool subject | 3.5% |
| Projected coverage loss by 2034 | 38,753 |
| Hardship exception status | Non expansion |
| Early implementer | No |
| Ex parte capability score (0 to 100) | null (null) |
Why eligible people lose coverage
Of the 38,753 projected to lose coverage in Wisconsin, 35,118 meet the requirement or qualify for an exemption but fail to document it. 16,065 of those are working people who cannot prove their hours through data the state can see, and 19,053 qualify for an exemption the state does not detect automatically.
| Group | Projected to lose coverage |
|---|---|
| Multiple part-time jobs (aggregation failure) | 4,652 |
| Variable shifts / on-call work | 2,778 |
| Self-employed (other) | 2,724 |
| Full-time students not auto-verified | 2,105 |
| Seasonal: agriculture, hospitality, food service | 1,573 |
| Volunteering / job training | 1,274 |
| Cash-paid construction & trades | 513 |
| Gig / courier (DoorDash, Uber, Lyft, Instacart) | 446 |
| Medically frail without auto-match | 10,662 |
| American Indian / Alaska Native (tribal exemption) | 2,361 |
| Caregivers of a disabled adult | 2,113 |
| SUD treatment not flagged in claims data | 1,774 |
| Recent incarceration (data-match gap) | 830 |
| Other categorical exemptions (foster, AYA cancer, SNAP/TANF) | 654 |
| Kinship caregivers (non-parent) of children ≤13 | 534 |
| Pregnancy / postpartum data lag | 123 |
| Parent caregivers of children ≤13 without auto-match | 0 |
Can the state renew people automatically?
The ex parte capability index blends the state's observed automatic-renewal rate (44% in CMS eligibility-processing data), the wage, disability, and other data sources it can query, and its history of churn. Wisconsin's composite score is null (null band). A low score means more eligible people will be dropped for paperwork unless the state changes its process before January 1, 2027.
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| Composite | |
| Observed ex parte | |
| Core capability | |
| Data sources | |
| Historical churn |
Counties in Wisconsin
Subject adults concentrate: Milwaukee County (16,789), Dane County (11,811), and Waukesha County (8,573) account for 31% of the state's subject population.
| County | Adults subject | Subject rate | Projected loss | Poverty rate | Working-age population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee County | 16,789 | 3.0% | 5,370 | 18.0% | 557,686 |
| Dane County | 11,811 | 3.3% | 3,778 | 11.0% | 363,736 |
| Waukesha County | 8,573 | 3.6% | 2,742 | 5.0% | 236,762 |
| Brown County | 5,243 | 3.3% | 1,677 | 10.0% | 160,653 |
| Racine County | 3,914 | 3.4% | 1,252 | 11.0% | 114,674 |
| Outagamie County | 3,774 | 3.3% | 1,207 | 7.0% | 114,304 |
| Winnebago County | 3,486 | 3.3% | 1,115 | 11.0% | 104,720 |
| Kenosha County | 3,332 | 3.2% | 1,066 | 11.0% | 102,734 |
| Rock County | 3,240 | 3.4% | 1,036 | 10.0% | 96,346 |
| Washington County | 2,848 | 3.6% | 911 | 5.0% | 80,122 |
| Marathon County | 2,804 | 3.5% | 897 | 8.0% | 79,344 |
| La Crosse County | 2,636 | 3.6% | 843 | 12.0% | 72,830 |
| Sheboygan County | 2,488 | 3.6% | 796 | 8.0% | 68,212 |
| Walworth County | 2,451 | 3.9% | 784 | 10.0% | 62,164 |
| Eau Claire County | 2,313 | 3.5% | 740 | 12.0% | 65,410 |
| Fond du Lac County | 2,180 | 3.6% | 697 | 9.0% | 60,255 |
| Ozaukee County | 1,979 | 3.8% | 633 | 4.0% | 52,190 |
| St. Croix County | 1,868 | 3.3% | 598 | 6.0% | 56,806 |
| Jefferson County | 1,835 | 3.6% | 587 | 8.0% | 51,339 |
| Dodge County | 1,780 | 3.3% | 569 | 8.0% | 53,670 |
| Manitowoc County | 1,739 | 3.8% | 556 | 10.0% | 45,973 |
| Portage County | 1,666 | 3.9% | 533 | 10.0% | 43,008 |
| Wood County | 1,512 | 3.7% | 484 | 10.0% | 41,315 |
| Chippewa County | 1,343 | 3.5% | 429 | 10.0% | 38,644 |
| Sauk County | 1,318 | 3.5% | 422 | 9.0% | 37,500 |
| Grant County | 1,262 | 4.2% | 404 | 14.0% | 29,952 |
| Columbia County | 1,192 | 3.5% | 381 | 8.0% | 34,312 |
| Calumet County | 1,096 | 3.5% | 351 | 6.0% | 31,520 |
| Waupaca County | 1,076 | 3.6% | 344 | 9.0% | 29,759 |
| Dunn County | 1,056 | 3.8% | 338 | 11.0% | 27,521 |
| Barron County | 1,020 | 4.0% | 326 | 12.0% | 25,430 |
| Polk County | 1,004 | 3.9% | 321 | 8.0% | 25,756 |
| Monroe County | 929 | 3.6% | 297 | 12.0% | 25,724 |
| Pierce County | 923 | 3.6% | 295 | 10.0% | 25,772 |
| Douglas County | 916 | 3.5% | 293 | 11.0% | 26,075 |
| Marinette County | 909 | 3.9% | 291 | 10.0% | 23,106 |
| Oneida County | 881 | 4.3% | 282 | 10.0% | 20,682 |
| Oconto County | 868 | 3.9% | 278 | 8.0% | 22,472 |
| Shawano County | 867 | 3.8% | 277 | 10.0% | 22,779 |
| Green County | 760 | 3.6% | 243 | 7.0% | 21,071 |
| Door County | 734 | 4.8% | 235 | 9.0% | 15,444 |
| Clark County | 733 | 4.1% | 234 | 12.0% | 18,027 |
| Vernon County | 680 | 4.2% | 217 | 15.0% | 16,016 |
| Trempealeau County | 628 | 3.8% | 201 | 7.0% | 16,532 |
| Lincoln County | 605 | 3.7% | 194 | 10.0% | 16,410 |
| Vilas County | 598 | 4.9% | 191 | 10.0% | 12,146 |
| Waushara County | 559 | 4.1% | 179 | 11.0% | 13,722 |
| Juneau County | 545 | 3.5% | 174 | 15.0% | 15,474 |
| Adams County | 520 | 4.6% | 166 | 15.0% | 11,322 |
| Iowa County | 504 | 3.7% | 161 | 8.0% | 13,602 |
| Kewaunee County | 441 | 3.8% | 141 | 7.0% | 11,544 |
| Langlade County | 440 | 4.2% | 141 | 12.0% | 10,571 |
| Taylor County | 439 | 4.0% | 140 | 9.0% | 10,902 |
| Sawyer County | 438 | 4.4% | 140 | 13.0% | 9,864 |
| Burnett County | 437 | 5.1% | 140 | 12.0% | 8,662 |
| Jackson County | 431 | 3.6% | 138 | 13.0% | 12,058 |
| Green Lake County | 425 | 4.1% | 136 | 13.0% | 10,333 |
| Bayfield County | 403 | 4.7% | 129 | 10.0% | 8,554 |
| Washburn County | 393 | 4.4% | 126 | 12.0% | 8,926 |
| Richland County | 387 | 4.3% | 124 | 15.0% | 9,078 |
| Lafayette County | 366 | 4.1% | 117 | 11.0% | 9,022 |
| Marquette County | 364 | 4.3% | 116 | 10.0% | 8,456 |
| Ashland County | 354 | 3.9% | 113 | 17.0% | 9,045 |
| Crawford County | 353 | 4.0% | 113 | 12.0% | 8,772 |
| Price County | 345 | 4.6% | 111 | 14.0% | 7,487 |
| Rusk County | 318 | 4.2% | 102 | 11.0% | 7,528 |
| Buffalo County | 295 | 4.0% | 94 | 8.0% | 7,382 |
| Forest County | 218 | 4.3% | 70 | 14.0% | 5,100 |
| Pepin County | 167 | 4.3% | 53 | 8.0% | 3,886 |
| Iron County | 149 | 4.7% | 48 | 10.0% | 3,152 |
| Florence County | 108 | 4.3% | 35 | 10.0% | 2,534 |
| Menominee County | 97 | 4.4% | 31 | 20.0% | 2,224 |
State brief and methodology
Estimates, not counts. The model rakes to CBO's national subject total and allocates by ACS microdata; state agencies hold the administrative data that would replace these figures.